Boise (670 KBOI News) – Election Day — November 6th — is only a month and a half away, and control of Congress hangs in the balance.

Idaho Second District Congressman Mike Simpson says all the talk of blue waves and red waves aside, the Republicans are going to have a tough time hanging on to the majority in the House.

He told 670 KBOI’s Nate Shelman the GOP has a 23-seat majority, but on average, the party in power loses 26 seats in the first mid-term election of a new presidential administration.

“It’s a question of whether the Republican base turns out,” said Simpson.  “If the Republican base turns out, we’ll be okay, and right now, I would put the House 50/50 chance of maintaining Republican control.  It’s going to be a tough election.”

Two relatively recent elections have bucked that trend, though…in 1998, when the Democrats picked up five House seats — Bill Clinton was president — and 2002, when the Republicans picked up eight House seats and two Senate seats under George W Bush.